Should Developers Be Worried About Sherlocking?
The term "Sherlocking" has become part of developer vernacular, describing when Apple introduces features or applications that duplicate the functionality of existing third-party apps. Named after Apple's 2002 update to Sherlock (which incorporated features from a popular third-party search tool called Watson), this practice has created anxiety among developers building on Apple's platforms.
But how real is the Sherlocking threat? Should developers genuinely fear Apple entering their market, or is this concern overblown? This post examines the historical patterns, business realities, and strategic considerations that define the actual risk of Sherlocking for today's app developers.
The History and Prevalence of Sherlocking
While Sherlocking incidents are relatively rare compared to the vast third-party app ecosystem, several notable cases have shaped developer perspectives:
2002 - Sherlock 3 vs Watson
01Original and namesake case of Sherlocking
02Apple incorporated Watson's web services search features into Sherlock 3
03Led to significant decline in Watson's market position
2005 - Dashboard vs Konfabulator
01Apple introduced Dashboard widgets in OS X Tiger
02Closely mimicked Konfabulator's desktop widget functionality and design
03Konfabulator was eventually acquired by Yahoo! and rebranded as Yahoo! Widgets
2016 - Night Shift vs F.lux
01F.lux pioneered blue light reduction for better sleep
02Apple's Night Shift provided similar functionality at system level
03F.lux lost significant iOS market but maintained cross-platform presence
2019 - Multiple Features
01Sidecar replicated Duet Display's iPad-as-secondary-display functionality
02Apple Health added cycle tracking, competing with established apps like Clue
03Demonstrated Apple's increasing interest in health and productivity features
2021 - AirTags vs Tile
01Apple entered item tracking market with deep iOS integration
02Leveraged vast Find My network of Apple devices
03Significantly impacted Tile's market position despite antitrust concerns
2025 - Social Coordination
01Apple launched party planning features similar to Partiful
02Integrated directly with iOS calendar and contacts
03Marked Apple's expansion into social coordination space
These examples span two decades, yet they represent only a tiny fraction of the millions of applications in Apple's ecosystem across iOS and MacOS. When analyzed closely, several patterns emerge that help define when Sherlocking is more likely to occur.
Apple's Strategic Motivations
Recent developments suggest Apple may be increasingly interested in building premium subscription apps that replicate successful third-party offerings. This strategy offers several potential advantages. Apple captures 100% of subscription revenue rather than just the 15-30% commission from third-party apps. These first-party apps can feature tighter integration with Apple hardware, potentially driving additional device sales. Apple gains direct access to valuable user data that might otherwise remain within third-party applications. First-party apps increase iOS ecosystem lock-in, as Apple's apps and data typically can't transfer easily to Android. The power of defaults provides built-in distribution advantages, with pre-installed apps seeing higher adoption rates. Apple can prevent popular apps from moving to web-based subscription models that bypass App Store fees.
This pattern is particularly visible in health and fitness categories, where Apple's Fitness+ has expanded to include not only workout content but also meditation sessions and other wellness features previously offered exclusively by specialized apps.
Frequency and Target Patterns
Examining the historical record reveals that Sherlocking typically happens in specific circumstances. Apple prioritizes features that enhance the integration between its hardware and software products, such as Sidecar for Mac-iPad connectivity. They focus on features that address fundamental user needs across broad segments of their user base, like Night Shift for eye comfort. Apple targets areas where they can leverage their privacy-focused approach as a differentiator, such as health tracking features. They develop features that tie directly to new hardware capabilities or accessories, like AirTags using the U1 chip. Apple also considers categories where subscription models have proven successful at scale, such as with Fitness+.
Notably absent from Apple's pattern are niche vertical applications serving specialized user needs. Apple has shown little interest in creating dedicated apps for specific hobbies, professions, or specialized workflows unless they demonstrate universal appeal or strategic value.
Why Apple Doesn't Sherlock Most Apps
Several structural factors limit Apple's incentive and ability to Sherlock the vast majority of third-party applications. Despite its massive size, Apple maintains a relatively focused product line. This focused approach extends to its software offerings. Apple develops approximately 80-90 first-party apps across iOS, macOS, watchOS, and tvOS, while the App Store hosts over 1.8 million active apps. Apple employs roughly 2,000 software engineers focused on applications. These teams are already stretched across maintaining existing applications, developing new platform features, and supporting hardware innovations.
This mathematical reality creates a natural constraint. Apple simply lacks the human resources to develop and maintain applications across thousands of niches, nor would such a strategy align with its historically focused approach to product development.
Apple's business model actually discourages widespread Sherlocking. Apple earns 15-30% of all app sales and in-app purchases, so displacing successful third-party apps would cannibalize this revenue stream. A thriving developer ecosystem increases the value of Apple's platforms, and aggressive Sherlocking would chill innovation and reduce platform attractiveness. With increasing regulatory pressure, Apple faces heightened scrutiny around any actions that could be construed as anticompetitive. Developing and maintaining applications for niche markets offers poor return on investment compared to platform-level improvements that benefit all users.
These factors create strong economic disincentives against Apple entering most application categories, particularly those serving specialized vertical markets.
Design Philosophy and Target Audience
Apple's product design philosophy also limits its Sherlocking activities. Apple typically designs for the "lowest common denominator" consumer, creating simple, accessible apps with relatively limited feature sets. This approach intentionally avoids steep learning curves or complex interfaces that might appeal to power users. Apple's focus on simplicity necessarily limits the complexity and depth of its first-party applications. Third-party developers can differentiate by creating more feature-rich applications targeted at specific user segments.
This philosophy creates natural space for third-party developers to offer more sophisticated alternatives to Apple's relatively basic first-party apps.
When Sherlocking Is Most Likely
While the risk is generally lower than perceived, developers should understand the conditions that increase Sherlocking probability. Applications become Sherlocking candidates when they address functionality gaps that limit hardware sales potential, provide features that users expect as standard on competing platforms, enable key differentiating capabilities for Apple's hardware, or control critical customer touchpoints that Apple views as strategic.
For instance, Apple developed Fitness+ because health and fitness tracking had become a primary selling point for Apple Watch. The service helps drive hardware sales while creating additional subscription revenue.
Apple focuses on features with relevance to a significant percentage of Apple users, functionality that benefits from deep system integration, cross-device use cases that enhance ecosystem value, and potential privacy or security benefits from first-party implementation. Night Shift exemplifies this pattern: it addressed a universal need (eye comfort), benefited from system-level integration, worked across multiple devices, and aligned with Apple's wellness narrative.
Web-to-App Bypass Potential
Apple appears increasingly concerned about apps that could bypass the App Store with web-based subscription models. Estimates suggest Apple could lose significant revenue if popular subscription apps moved to web payment models. The most successful subscription apps represent potential targets if they show signs of shifting to web-based payments. Apple may view first-party alternatives as defensive measures to retain users in its ecosystem.
This dynamic creates additional risk for highly successful subscription apps, particularly those that might be able to maintain their user bases even if they moved to web-centric models.
Strategic Protection Against Sherlocking
Developers can adopt several strategies to reduce Sherlocking risk while building sustainable businesses on Apple's platforms. Applications serving specific vertical markets face substantially lower Sherlocking risk, including specialized professional tools (architectural software, medical reference apps, legal document systems), hobby-specific applications (fishing journals, quilting pattern designers, astronomy guides), and industry-specific workflows (restaurant inventory, construction estimation, specialized calculators). These verticals require domain expertise, specialized interfaces, and frequent updates tailored to evolving user needs. Apple has historically shown little interest in such markets, preferring broadly applicable features with minimal maintenance requirements.
As Joel Spolsky noted over a decade ago in his essay on platform vendors: "They're not going to waste time copying your application. They're too busy copying each other's operating systems and competing for 95% of the market to worry about a tiny vendor with .05% of the market."
Applications spanning multiple platforms reduce their dependency on Apple. Cross-platform availability insulates from Apple-specific business risks, web components provide platform independence for key functionality, multiple platform presence creates broader market opportunities, and Android presence provides competitive intelligence about Google's platform decisions. Multi-platform businesses also benefit from diversified revenue streams, reducing the impact if Apple does enter their category on iOS.
Differentiate Through Community and Content
Features can be copied, but communities and content create sustainable differentiation. User-generated content creates network effects that resist platform competition, communities build loyalty beyond mere functionality, domain-specific content demonstrates expertise that platforms rarely develop, and content production capabilities are rarely replicated by platform vendors.
Applications like Strava have thrived despite Apple's fitness tracking features because they created vibrant communities around their core functionality, demonstrating that social elements can provide durable competitive advantages.
Web-based subscription models provide strategic advantages, including reduced dependency on App Store distribution, lower platform fees, improving unit economics, greater control over the customer relationship, flexibility to adapt to platform policy changes, and cross-platform subscription management. Web-to-app approaches also create diversification away from App Store dependency, reducing overall platform risk while potentially improving margins. Ironically, while this approach might increase Sherlocking risk, it also provides the best protection against its consequences by establishing direct customer relationships outside Apple's ecosystem.
Case Studies: Surviving and Thriving Despite Sherlocking
Several companies have demonstrated that Sherlocking doesn't necessarily spell doom, and can sometimes expand market opportunities. When Apple launched Fitness+ in 2020, many predicted it would devastate third-party fitness apps. However, specialized fitness apps like Strava, Peloton, and Nike Training Club have continued to grow. The overall fitness app market expanded as Apple's entry increased awareness and interest. Differentiated offerings targeting specific workout styles, communities, or goals remained resilient, and apps offering deeper features or specialized training have maintained strong positions.
Similar to how Starbucks often expanded the overall coffee market rather than simply taking share from existing shops, Apple's entry increased overall category interest while educating users about the value of fitness services.
Apple has continuously expanded its weather app capabilities, yet specialized weather apps continue to thrive. Dark Sky was successful enough that Apple acquired it rather than simply cloning its functionality. AccuWeather, The Weather Channel, and Carrot Weather maintain substantial user bases. Specialized weather apps for aviation, marine use, and outdoor activities serve needs beyond Apple's offering. Apps providing additional data visualization, forecasting methods, or specialized alerts maintain clear differentiation.
These examples demonstrate that even in categories where Apple offers native applications, opportunities remain for developers who provide deeper functionality, different interfaces, or specialized use cases.
The Awareness Benefit of Sherlocking
Counterintuitively, Apple's entry into a category often creates benefits for the entire ecosystem. When Apple builds simplified versions of popular app categories, it introduces mainstream users to these use cases. Most users don't fully utilize their smartphones' capabilities and remain unaware of many potential applications. Apple's entry educates the market about these possibilities, potentially expanding the total addressable market. As users become familiar with basic functionality through Apple's apps, many seek more sophisticated alternatives.
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Counterintuitively, Apple's entry into a category often creates benefits for the entire ecosystem. When Apple builds simplified versions of popular app categories, it introduces mainstream users to these use cases.
This dynamic creates a "starter experience" effect, where Apple's simplified apps serve as entry points that eventually lead power users to more capable third-party alternatives. For instance, Apple's basic document scanning functionality in Notes introduced many users to the concept of mobile scanning. While this replicated features from dedicated scanning apps, it also normalized the behavior and created new users who eventually sought more powerful scanning applications as their needs evolved.
Conclusion: A Balanced View of Sherlocking Risk
The evidence suggests that Sherlocking fears, while not entirely unfounded, are often overestimated. Historical patterns show Sherlocking is relatively rare and follows predictable patterns. Economic and resource constraints limit Apple's incentives and ability to enter most application categories. Specialized vertical applications face substantially lower risk than horizontal utilities. Multi-platform strategies, community building, and web-to-app models provide structural protection. Even when Sherlocking occurs, it doesn't necessarily harm the overall market for similar applications.
Developers should consider Sherlocking as one of many business risks to be managed rather than avoided entirely. By understanding the patterns that increase or decrease this risk, developers can make informed strategic decisions while building on Apple's platforms.
The most sustainable approach combines addressing genuine user needs, developing unique capabilities or communities, maintaining platform independence where practical, and focusing on markets where specialized knowledge creates natural moats against platform competition. Rather than fearing Sherlocking, developers should view Apple's patterns as a guide to opportunity. The areas Apple avoids - highly specialized vertical applications, community-driven products, and deeply customizable tools - often represent the most sustainable opportunities for third-party developers building long-term businesses on Apple's platforms.
